Forest Fire Forecasting System in the Western Ghats 

Centre for Environment and Development, International Development Research Council

GIS: Erdis Imagine 8.5, ArcInfo workstation 8.3/ ArcGIS Desktop 8.3, Arc IMS

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Forest

Western Ghats, one of the mega biodiversity hotspots is located in southern part of India. Apart from biological values, the mountains are essential water catchments for Kerala State for its domestic needs, agriculture, hydropower and industrial needs. At present the entire area of Western Ghats is under severe threat due to increasing human intervention and over exploitation of natural resources. The increasing biotic pressure has led to the occurrences of forest fire, which resulted in fragmentation and degradation of the area and many of these fragmented forest landscapes are in highly endangered status and provide alarming signals of accelerated biodiversity loss. Forest fires are a major recurrent management problem in Western Ghats, even though the incidence and extent may vary from year to year, depending primarily on rainfall during the dry fire season. Statistics shows that during the last 12 years (1991-2003), more than 25,000 ha of forests of Kerala had been destroyed by fires. The project aims to develop the most effective method for a forest fire forecasting in southern Western Ghats by using GIS and Remote Sensing.

The project 1) Records the occurrences of forest fire, its causes and consequences; 2) Maps forest fire risk in the southern Western Ghats using GIS and remote sensing; 3) Develops a Forest Fire Forecasting System for southern Western Ghats based on Topographic and Meteorological factors; 4) Presents the results using Internet GIS; 5) Networks and builds capacity of local organisations, schools, Forest Department in fire prone areas.
Erdis Imagine 8.5, Arc/Info workstation 8.3/ Arc GIS Desktop 8.3, Arc IMS software will be used for image processing and spatial analyses. A fire hazard map of the study area will be prepared based on geographical and natural factors (classified vegetation map, rivers, streams and water bodies, road maps, maximum/minimum temperature, relative humidity, rainfall data, human interference), which are necessary to forecast a forest fire hazard index. Fire potential will require collecting this baseline information on a daily to weekly basis.  A computer-based model based on GIS was developed which uses fuel type, weather conditions, slope, aspect and elevation will predict the direction, speed and burn intensity of a wild fire across various landscapes.  Forest fire hazard index will be presented in real time integrated with meteorological data through web based GIS using ARC IMS software to Forest Department Officials, local organisations etc without time lagging. A graphic user interface will allow the user to easily specify, edit data and parameters necessary to execute simulation

In the past the most successful method of fire protection in the area was an elaborate network of fire lines, their clearing and burning just before the onset of summer season. The method was labor intensive and the human resources and funds available with the Forest Department were limited. The new method will be time and cost effective. The early fire forecasting system will help the Forest department to manage and conserve the fire prone areas more efficiently. It will benefit the local communities residing in and around the forest whose livelihood depends entirely on natural resources. The forecasting and prevention of forest fire will reduce the degradation and loss of biodiversity of the area. Project outputs will include the following:
• Forest Fire Risk Area Map of Southern western Ghats
• Forest Fire Forecasting System
• Project report on Forest Fire, its causes, consequences and solutions
• Presentation of Fire Forecasting System on CED web site which can be freely used by stakeholders
• A network of local organizations and people
• Skill development in front line staff of Forest Department and local people

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